Global stocks fell on Thursday as renewed concern about the sustainability of companies’ artificial-intelligence investments hit technology shares, while oil prices rose amid worries about the war with Iran. The retreat put spending plans in the AI industry at the centre of a wider market sell-off, with US technology stocks dropping sharply and Chinese equities also losing ground. At the same time, worries about the war with Iran pushed oil prices to their highest levels since May, giving investors a separate source of uncertainty.

The moves extended across several markets. China’s CSI 300 was down 1. Brent crude rose to $112 per barrel, while bitcoin declined to $81,922. Together, those figures showed that the weakness was not confined to US technology companies. They also underscored the contrasting direction of markets: equities and bitcoin were under pressure as oil advanced amid concerns about the Middle East conflict.

The central question for technology investors was whether companies’ enormous capital commitments to AI could be sustained. The sell-off reflected unease about the scale of those investments, even as Gartner forecast continued growth in global AI investment. That distinction matters: expectations for continued expansion can coexist with doubts about whether the companies making the investments will justify their commitments. Thursday’s sharp losses in AI stocks showed how concerns centred on one industry could weigh on markets more broadly, even without resolving that longer-term question.

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The scale of the projected investment remains substantial. Technology insights company Gartner forecasts global AI investment of $2.7 trillion in 2026 and $3.6 trillion in 2027. Those figures describe an expected expansion in spending, not a measure of the financial returns it will produce. For investors assessing the sustainability of capital commitments, the forecasts therefore frame the issue rather than settle it: a larger investment total does not, by itself, establish whether the spending will meet companies’ commercial expectations.

That leaves room for competing interpretations of the same outlook. Continued growth in projected AI investment points to an industry still expected to attract substantial resources. The market’s retreat, however, highlighted concern about the commitments required to support that expansion. Neither the spending forecast nor a sharp fall in share prices provides a complete assessment of the investment outlook. The former sets out the expected size of investment; the latter reflects investors’ unease about its sustainability. Treating either as a complete assessment would obscure that distinction.

Elon Musk also cut capital-expenditure guidance, bringing another spending-related development into focus. A reduction in one set of spending plans is different from a change in Gartner’s global forecast, and the two should not be treated as interchangeable. Against a backdrop of anxiety about AI investment, the distinction between individual capital budgets and an industry-wide outlook is particularly important. A corporate spending decision can inform the debate without establishing that the broader investment trajectory has changed.

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Oil presented a separate development. Brent’s rise to $112 per barrel came as worries about the war with Iran lifted oil prices to their highest levels since May. The equity sell-off was therefore unfolding alongside concern about conflict, rather than in an environment shaped solely by technology spending. That overlap calls for care in attributing the entire worldwide retreat to AI. The sharp declines in AI shares were a central force, but the oil move reflected a different concern.

China’s figures also placed the latest losses in a broader timeframe. The CSI 300’s 1. That longer-period measure provides context without establishing that AI concerns explain the full retreat. Bitcoin’s decline to $81,922 added another example of an asset moving lower, although its quoted level alone does not establish the scale of the fall or how closely it tracked technology shares.

In a separate corporate financing development, Musk made an investment commitment as part of Skydance’s wider effort to raise equity funding. That fundraising effort is distinct from both the reduction in capital-expenditure guidance and the global AI investment forecasts. It illustrates why financing commitments and spending plans need to be assessed separately: a pledge to supply equity to a company is not the same measure as a capital budget, and neither can be substituted for an industry-wide investment projection.

One question for investors is whether companies’ spending plans will ease or deepen doubts about AI investment, while developments in the war with Iran present a separate uncertainty. Gartner’s forecasts provide a benchmark for the expected scale of AI investment through 2027, but not an answer to concerns about its sustainability. Oil’s advance adds another consideration to the market backdrop. For markets, the sell-off juxtaposed the prospect of continued AI expansion with uncertainty over corporate commitments, alongside higher crude prices driven by worries about the war.