Home prices increased across most US metropolitan areas in the third quarter of 2026, despite affordability pressures that are restraining purchases. The National Association of Realtors reported gains in 78 percent of the markets it tracks, with the national median existing single-family price reaching $432,900. Separate figures from Redfin for the four weeks ending Oct. 25 showed pending sales at their lowest level in its records, highlighting the divergence between prices and activity.

The national median rose 1.7 percent from a year earlier, matching the revised annual growth rate for the second quarter, NAR said. But the breadth of appreciation narrowed: the share of roughly 235 tracked metros recording increases slipped from 80 percent in the second quarter. Prices fell in 21 percent of markets, compared with 20 percent previously, while 4 percent registered double-digit gains, down from 5 percent.

More recent Redfin figures pointed to softer prices, although the measures are not directly comparable. The company reported a median US sale price of $389,601 in the four weeks ending Oct. 25, down 0.1 percent year over year, after a 0.2 percent decline in the preceding four-week reporting period. Those were the first declines in more than three years. NAR measures quarterly existing single-family sales; Redfin covers homes listed or sold across more than 900 metros over rolling four-week periods.

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Regional differences were substantial in NAR’s report. The Northeast recorded the strongest annual appreciation, with its median rising 4 percent to $561,500. The Midwest followed with a 3.6 percent increase to $342,500, while the South’s median advanced 1 percent to $374,900. The West was the only region to post a decline, falling 0.6 percent to $629,000. Its median nevertheless remained above those of the other regions, underscoring the distinction between price levels and the direction of change.

Among large markets, Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula, Mississippi, led price growth at 11 percent, followed by Rochester, New York, at 10.9 percent and Jackson, Mississippi, at 10.1 percent. Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Cleveland-Elyria and Fort Wayne also ranked among the top 10. At the expensive end, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara retained the highest median, $1.3 percent. Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine followed at $1. California and Hawaii accounted for nine of the 10 highest-priced markets.

Higher prices continued to weigh on household budgets. NAR put the third-quarter monthly mortgage payment for a typical existing single-family home bought with 20 percent down at $2,251, an increase of $48 from the second quarter and $69 from a year earlier. Typical families devoted 24.9 percent in the previous quarter and 24.5 percent a year earlier. The figures show that a lower annual payment-to-income share did not mean a smaller monthly bill.

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The burden as a share of income was greater for first-time buyers. A typical $368,000 starter home purchased with 10 percent down carried a monthly payment of $2,208, according to NAR. That absorbed 36.3 percent of income, up from 36 percent in the second quarter, though below 37 percent a year earlier. Redfin’s separate median monthly payment measure, calculated at a 7.32 percent mortgage rate, reached $2,786 — up 10.7 percent year over year and the second-highest payment in its records. The weekly average rate had eased from 7.4 percent.

Demand weakened sharply in Redfin’s latest figures. Pending sales fell 1.9 percent from a year earlier, with annual declines across all 50 of the most populous metros for the third consecutive week. Seattle recorded a 31.6 percent drop and Atlanta a 25.9 percent decline. New listings decreased 0.6 percent from the preceding week to their lowest level since January, while total inventory increased 0.3 percent because pending sales fell faster than new listings.

Those conditions offer contrasting signals for owners and prospective purchasers. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said price appreciation was benefiting homeowners, with the average house gaining $146,000 over seven years despite a stagnant market constrained by affordability. Redfin, meanwhile, reported hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers, giving purchasers their strongest negotiating position in more than a decade. The share of listings with price reductions reached 21.5 percent, compared with 20.9 percent a year earlier.

Historical evidence also cautions against assuming higher borrowing costs will automatically bring lower prices. First American chief economist Mark Fleming examined eight periods of sustained mortgage-rate increases since 1993 and found that national prices generally continued rising. During the increase in rates from December 2021 through October 2023, prices rose an estimated 14 percent. The company’s Real House Price Index, which adjusts for income and mortgage-rate changes, climbed more than 70 percent over that period, indicating a much sharper deterioration in affordability.

The outlook therefore depends on more than demand alone. Fleming said limited supply can support prices when owners with cheaper mortgages delay selling or withdraw properties rather than accept less. Employment and household incomes also matter. Yun said nearly all Florida markets were showing gains during the quarter after declines in many markets over the past year, and suggested other local downturns could prove temporary where jobs and economic conditions remain sound. The quarterly gains and weaker recent sales leave that resilience under scrutiny.