Gold fell for a fourth consecutive session on Oct. 21 as rising oil prices fuelled inflation concerns, putting the precious metal under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. The direction was not uniform across the available price readings, however: a morning spot-market snapshot showed gold above its comparable level on Tuesday. That distinction complicates the daily picture without resolving the broader concern over inflation and interest rates.

Gold’s spot price, its current trading value, stood at $4,129.91 per ounce at 9:00 a.m. ET on Oct. 21, 2026, compared with $4,118. Separately, CME’s FedWatch Tool put the probability of a rate increase at the central bank’s October 27-28 meeting as low as 16%, while traders assigned a 90% chance to an increase in December. Those readings point to markedly different expectations for the two policy dates.

The higher morning quotation and the account of a fourth straight declining session need to be distinguished rather than treated as interchangeable measures. The spot figures provide a comparison at a specified time on successive days; they do not, by themselves, establish the direction of an entire trading session. No corresponding price or measurement time was supplied for the fourth-session decline in the available material, leaving the two descriptions without a directly comparable basis.

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The October policy outlook adds context to the inflation concerns weighing on gold. A rate-increase probability as low as 16% indicates that an increase at the October 27-28 meeting was not the dominant expectation captured by FedWatch. That is a narrower conclusion than saying the inflation issue has faded. The figure concerns a particular meeting, and the December reading shows why a limited expectation of immediate action should not be read as a limited expectation of later tightening.

For December, the 90% probability placed a rate increase firmly at the centre of traders’ expectations. The contrast with October makes the timing of any response an important part of the market picture. These probabilities describe expectations rather than announced Federal Reserve decisions, and neither should be presented as a commitment by policymakers. Taken together, they indicate a much stronger expectation of a rate increase in December than at the next meeting.

The oil rally supplies the inflation concern identified in the account of gold’s decline. Gold’s weakness was linked to worries about rising oil prices; the supplied material does not include a newly reported inflation result. That distinction matters because concern about future price pressure is not the same as confirmation of it in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. The available figures also do not identify an oil price or the size of its advance, limiting any numerical assessment of the rally behind the pressure on gold.

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Markets are also awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, due next week. The Federal Reserve uses that measure as its preferred gauge for monitoring its 2% inflation target. The release is an upcoming source of information on inflation, alongside the concerns raised by the oil rally. No new PCE reading is included in the supplied material, so the target should not be confused with a statement about the prevailing inflation rate.

The available evidence therefore supports competing emphases, rather than a single uncomplicated market signal. Attention to the October probability highlights limited expectations for an immediate rate increase. Attention to December highlights a much stronger expectation of action later. Similarly, the morning gold quotation offers a specified point-in-time comparison, while the fourth-session account describes continued weakness. Neither contrast justifies discarding the other reading; each places a boundary around what can be concluded from the figures alone.

For gold, the forthcoming data and policy meeting offer opportunities to test those expectations. If the PCE release reinforces inflation concerns, one question will be whether traders maintain or revise the rate probabilities reflected in FedWatch. If it does not reinforce those concerns, traders could still reassess their expectations against the new information. These are conditional questions, not predictions about the release, a Federal Reserve decision or the direction of the next gold quotation.

The immediate focus includes next week’s PCE data and the October 27-28 policy meeting, with December expectations forming part of the backdrop. Gold’s fourth consecutive declining session captures the pressure associated with oil-driven inflation worries, but the higher 9:00 a.m. ET spot reading cautions against describing every observation as a decline. The forthcoming data could help traders assess the inflation outlook, while any changes in rate probabilities would show whether their expectations for the timing of an increase had shifted.