Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro challenged each other over household costs, welfare and corruption on Friday in their last televised debate before Sunday’s presidential runoff. The encounter gave the candidates a final debate opportunity to make their arguments directly against one another before the vote, with Lula questioning Bolsonaro’s experience while Bolsonaro criticised the condition of the country under the incumbent.

Bolsonaro secured 47% in the first round earlier this month, compared with Lula’s 45%. Opinion polls this week have put the candidates about even, suggesting the president has recovered ground during the intervening campaign. Around 20% of the electorate abstained in the first round, leaving turnout an important uncertainty alongside the choices of undecided voters. The figures offer no clear indication that either candidate has established a decisive advantage heading into Sunday’s vote.

The debate in Rio de Janeiro lasted over two hours and covered familiar campaign commitments on living standards, welfare and public security. Although the exchanges were less heated than at their earlier encounter, which was dominated by insults rather than policy proposals, personal criticism remained prominent. Lula questioned Bolsonaro’s experience and understanding of deprivation, saying: “He doesn't know what hunger is.” Bolsonaro pressed the president on household expenses, asking: “Why are things so expensive?” Both also levelled corruption allegations at their opponent.

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For Lula, the argument over living costs touches a central part of his political identity. The 80-year-old former union worker became Brazil’s first working-class president and is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. During his first two terms, a commodities boom supported economic growth, while social programmes, including direct cash assistance, helped lift millions out of poverty. That record remains a contrast with the dissatisfaction he has faced during the current term, when concerns about crime and living costs have accompanied approval ratings that at times fell as low as 24%.

Corruption presents a separate challenge for both campaigns, though their circumstances differ. Lula spent more than a year in prison following corruption convictions that were subsequently annulled, before winning a third term in 2022. Bolsonaro has acknowledged receiving millions of dollars from banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film about his father’s life. The senator is under investigation for corruption, money-laundering and tax evasion in connection with that case. The case has cast a shadow over his campaign as he seeks to challenge Lula’s record in government.

Bolsonaro’s candidacy also carries the political legacy of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running and is serving a 27-year sentence under house detention for an attempted coup after losing to Lula in 2022. The younger Bolsonaro, a former lawyer who entered politics at 21, has largely retained his father’s strongly conservative positions while trying to moderate his communication style to appeal to centrist voters. Security is central to his platform: he has pledged 500,000 additional prison places, action against crime and reductions in government spending.

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The competing records leave voters weighing Lula’s history of social assistance against dissatisfaction with current conditions, and Bolsonaro’s promises against questions about his experience and conduct. Polls indicate that the senator’s hard-line security proposals are popular, giving him an issue beyond household costs on which to challenge the president. But his first-round lead has not translated into a clear polling advantage before the runoff. Lula’s recovery in those surveys, meanwhile, does not remove the uncertainty created by first-round abstention and the remaining undecided voters.

The result also has implications for Brazil’s relations with the United States. Lula has warned against US involvement in the election and made sovereignty and interference by foreign social media prominent campaign issues. President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, citing reasons that included Jair Bolsonaro’s trial, and imposed another round this year over alleged unfair trade practices despite a US trade surplus. Lula’s administration also opposed the US designation of Brazil’s largest drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organisations, viewing it as a potential justification for intervention.

Environmental policy offers another distinction with international consequences. Amazon deforestation reached a record high during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, followed in recent years by a record low in new clearances as Lula’s administration expanded satellite monitoring and targeted enforcement. Flavio Bolsonaro has denied human-caused climate change and committed only to halting illegal deforestation. A Bolsonaro victory would also place Brazil alongside Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru among Latin American countries that have elected governments friendly towards Trump in recent years.

Both candidates were returning to supporters on Saturday, with final campaigning centred on Rio de Janeiro’s beaches after Friday’s debate. Lula held his closing rally on Copacabana beach as the rivals sought to turn their arguments into votes. Sunday’s runoff will decide whether the president secures another term or Bolsonaro carries his father’s political programme back into office, after a campaign in which neither the first-round result nor the latest polls has settled the outcome.