U.S. home prices are forecast to increase just 1% over the next 12 months, according to Veros Real Estate Solutions, as rising mortgage rates restrain sales without producing a broad retreat in prices. The company’s outlook describes a market in which buyers are unwilling to accept the combination of purchase prices and borrowing costs, while sellers remain reluctant to make the reductions needed to attract substantially more demand.

Veros released its Q3 2026 VeroFORECAST on October 7, 2026, with mortgage rates having moved above 7% again and home sales remaining historically weak. Its central projection is for modest price appreciation rather than a decline, despite those financing pressures. The distinction is important to the outlook: the company sees the strain between buyers and sellers being reflected primarily in fewer transactions, rather than in the lower prices that might help bring the two sides together.

For buyers, the problem extends beyond whether a property’s asking price is negotiable. Veros identifies resistance to prices and financing costs together, making mortgage rates a central part of the market’s weakness. A forecast for modest price growth does not itself resolve that resistance: the company still expects prices to rise over the coming year. Its outlook therefore offers little indication of broad purchase-price relief to offset the pressure that higher borrowing costs are already placing on prospective purchasers.

Read more: Israel marks three years since Oct. 7 as Netanyahu faces scrutiny over warnings

Sellers represent the competing position in that assessment. According to Veros, they are resisting price cuts large enough to draw substantially more buyers into the market. That reluctance helps explain why weak sales and rising prices can coexist in its forecast. The available evidence does not describe a market in which owners have broadly accepted price reductions to complete transactions. Instead, the company’s account points to a continuing disagreement over what buyers will pay and what sellers will accept.

There is, however, a development working in buyers’ favour: more existing homes are available for sale than a year earlier. Veros says that increase is providing greater choice and more negotiating power. This complicates the picture of persistent price growth, because purchasers have more alternatives even as financing remains expensive. The release does not suggest that the wider selection has been sufficient to overcome the price disagreement. Greater bargaining power and an outright decline in national prices remain different outcomes in the company’s assessment.

The cost of ownership adds another layer to the affordability problem. Veros points to property taxes, insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and maintenance alongside the cost of buying and financing a home. Those expenses matter to the interpretation of its price forecast: a modest change in property values captures only part of the financial commitment facing a purchaser. The supplied excerpt does not provide figures for these additional costs, but Veros explicitly identifies them as part of the burden of owning a home.

Read more: Trump heads to San Antonio for Paxton as Democrats eye Texas Senate opening

Taken together, the figures suggest that restrained price growth should not be confused with a recovery in market activity. The 1% forecast sits alongside a description of historically weak sales, not evidence of a stronger flow of transactions. Veros’s analysis separates the direction of prices from the willingness of households to buy and owners to sell. On that reading, prices can continue edging higher while the market remains difficult for participants seeking to agree on a transaction under current financing conditions.

The scope of the forecast also matters. Veros’s headline projection concerns U.S. home prices over the next 12 months; it is not a reported price increase already recorded over that period. Nor does the supplied material offer local forecasts with which to assess how widely the national expectation might apply. The projection provides a broad view of the direction of prices, while the accompanying discussion supplies the reasons that a positive number can still be consistent with a subdued housing market.

There are limits to the detail available for evaluating that view. Although Veros describes sales as historically weak and existing-home availability as higher than a year ago, the supplied material gives no transaction count or inventory figure. It also says mortgage rates have crossed 7%, without providing a more precise rate. Those descriptions establish the direction of the pressures identified by the company, but do not quantify how far sales have weakened or how much the stock of homes for sale has expanded.

An open question is whether greater buyer choice will translate into price concessions, or whether sellers will continue to resist reductions while transactions remain constrained. Veros’s forecast points to continued modest appreciation despite the current pressure from mortgage rates. For prospective buyers, that leaves a mixed picture: more properties to consider and greater room to negotiate, but no national price decline in the company’s central projection. For sellers, the same outlook pairs price resilience with an already weak sales environment.